The IBEX 35 returns to the last row of the class

The IBEX 35 is close to closing January as the worst indicator among the most important indices in the world

Four values ​​of the continuous market to bet on the dividend

The Ibex will be placed again in January as one of the worst students in the class, but the worst, if nothing changes in the hours that remain of the selective listing.

Specific, the Ibex is down 1.75% so far this year; above the 1.42% left by the Italian FTSE Mib; of the 0.74% that the French CAC falls and of the 1.19% that the German DAX deteriorates.

But the photo is even worse if we compare the selective country with the indices that are rising in the annual calculation. In this way; US technology Nasdaq climbs 4.97%; The Dow Jones and the S&P gained more than 1%, the Japanese Nikkei gained 2.7%, the CSI 300 of the Chinese stock bounced 3.18% and the Hang Seng of Hong Kong rose 4.85%.


A truncated recovery

At the end of the year, the advances in the field of vaccines helped the selective to recover part of the very large losses harvested throughout the year due to the strong incidence of the coronavirus and the confinements in the Spanish economy.

This recovery, encouraged by the rotation of assets that was generated after the publication of the advances in the aforementioned vaccine, suggested that the IBEX could continue on this path throughout 2021.

This was asserted by some of well-known fund managers in this media.

But, finally, the long-awaited recovery of the IBEX seems to be making us wait longer than desired.

Joaquín Robles, XTB expert, explains that the IBEX is once again leading the declines in Europe (and the rest of the major markets) due to its weighting in the sectors most affected by the restrictions associated with the third wave of coronavirus.

The problem of the cyclical weighting of the IBEX

“The IBEX is doing badly because it is heavily weighted to cyclical stocks, banking and tourism, which are the most affected. At the end of last year they rose a lot with the hopes of recovery that arose from the vaccine. But we have gotten into January, with a third wave bigger than expected, more restrictions, delays in the vaccine and, in the end, the table is ordered by the values ​​that fall the most ”, he argues.

By doing this exercise, it is clear that Robles is indeed right. Amadeus is the most punished value, with a decrease of 8.73 %%; followed by IAG, with a 7.8% drop; and Aena, 7.4%, all of them companies linked to tourism.

The question is whether this correction is temporary or the IBEX will continue to perform worse than the rest of the stock markets in the medium term.

On this point, Robles explains that it is a very difficult subject to predict: “The problem is the same as last year. That this threat does not depend on any organism. It is a pandemic that nobody knows how it will evolve. The market has discounted that it will be solved in the medium term but, of course, right now, saying how the IBEX will be in September is like saying how many infections there will be in September. Nobody knows”.

For this reason, we will have to wait to see if the hope of the market is fulfilled, which “is that in the middle of the year the vaccination campaigns begin to take effect, so that restrictions can be eliminated”.

It could have been worse

In any case, Robles believes that the fall experienced by the IBEX could have been much more abrupt given the severity of the third wave.

“The fall is still little for what it could have been because the countries are confined and the companies are not going to be able to present growth in results. We are surprised that the IBEX has not approached the support of 7,600 and, while it is, we see it as something positive, “he argues.

In his opinion, that they have held current levels puts the selective in a good position if the unknowns are finally cleared up for the second half of the year.

“Investors will try to discount it ahead of time but we will have to wait for the economic data to actually reverse to see a solid improvement in equities,” he warns.

The IBEX 35 is close to closing January as the worst indicator among the most important indices in the world


Four values ​​of the continuous market to bet on the dividend

The Ibex will be placed again in January as one of the worst students in the class, but the worst, if nothing changes in the hours that remain of the selective listing.

Specific, the Ibex is down 1.75% so far this year; above the 1.42% left by the Italian FTSE Mib; of the 0.74% that the French CAC falls and of the 1.19% that the German DAX deteriorates.

But the photo is even worse if we compare the selective country with the indices that are rising in the annual calculation. In this way; US technology Nasdaq climbs 4.97%; The Dow Jones and the S&P gained more than 1%, the Japanese Nikkei gained 2.7%, the CSI 300 of the Chinese stock bounced 3.18% and the Hang Seng of Hong Kong rose 4.85%.


A truncated recovery

At the end of the year, the advances in the field of vaccines helped the selective to recover part of the very large losses harvested throughout the year due to the strong incidence of the coronavirus and the confinements in the Spanish economy.

This recovery, encouraged by the rotation of assets that was generated after the publication of the advances in the aforementioned vaccine, suggested that the IBEX could continue on this path throughout 2021.

This was asserted by some of well-known fund managers in this media.

But, finally, the long-awaited recovery of the IBEX seems to be making us wait longer than desired.

Joaquín Robles, XTB expert, explains that the IBEX is once again leading the declines in Europe (and the rest of the major markets) due to its weighting in the sectors most affected by the restrictions associated with the third wave of coronavirus.

The problem of the cyclical weighting of the IBEX

“The IBEX is doing badly because it is heavily weighted to cyclical stocks, banking and tourism, which are the most affected. At the end of last year they rose a lot with the hopes of recovery that arose from the vaccine. But we have gotten into January, with a third wave bigger than expected, more restrictions, delays in the vaccine and, in the end, the table is ordered by the values ​​that fall the most ”, he argues.

By doing this exercise, it is clear that Robles is indeed right. Amadeus is the most punished value, with a decrease of 8.73 %%; followed by IAG, with a 7.8% drop; and Aena, 7.4%, all of them companies linked to tourism.

The question is whether this correction is temporary or the IBEX will continue to perform worse than the rest of the stock markets in the medium term.

On this point, Robles explains that it is a very difficult subject to predict: “The problem is the same as last year. That this threat does not depend on any organism. It is a pandemic that nobody knows how it will evolve. The market has discounted that it will be solved in the medium term but, of course, right now, saying how the IBEX will be in September is like saying how many infections there will be in September. Nobody knows”.

For this reason, we will have to wait to see if the hope of the market is fulfilled, which “is that in the middle of the year the vaccination campaigns begin to take effect, so that restrictions can be eliminated”.

It could have been worse

In any case, Robles believes that the fall experienced by the IBEX could have been much more abrupt given the severity of the third wave.

“The fall is still little for what it could have been because the countries are confined and the companies are not going to be able to present growth in results. We are surprised that the IBEX has not approached the support of 7,600 and, while it is, we see it as something positive, “he argues.

In his opinion, that they have held current levels puts the selective in a good position if the unknowns are finally cleared up for the second half of the year.

“Investors will try to discount it ahead of time but we will have to wait for the economic data to actually reverse to see a solid improvement in equities,” he warns.